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Política Internacional / 19/10/2020

IMF improves projection for Chile by more than one point and estimates contraction of 6% for 2020

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IMF improves projection for Chile by more than one point and estimates contraction of 6% for 2020

Fonte DCO

The fall in national GDP would be less severe than that of several Latin American countries, with the exception of Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay. In 2020 the Chilean economy would rebound 4.5%.

The International Monetary Fund, in line with what it advanced in recent statements, determined an improvement in the outlook for the world economy, for which it anticipates a contraction of 4.4% in 2020 versus the 5.2% drop forecast in June . This is revealed by the World Economic Outlook (WEO) published this morning, the agency also offers a less negative view of Chile, improving its forecast a drop in GDP of 7.3% to one of 6%.

Without delving into the reasons behind the somewhat more optimistic outlook for our country, the IMF does specify that its projection largely reflects its expectations regarding the price of copper. In this regard, it states that "copper prices increased 14.4% amid growing optimism about China's economic recovery, falling inventories and supply interruptions in key producing countries (Chile and Peru)."

For the Asian giant, the agency also applies a relevant increase in its prospects, 1% to 1.9%. In fact, the report indicates that the global review is driven, among other things, by "China's return to growth, which was stronger than expected."

The other major culprit for a less desolate world outlook is the result of advanced economies, which as a whole see an improvement a decline of 8.1% to one of 5.8% for this year. Within this framework, the increase in the outlook for the United States stands out, for which a fall of 4.3%, instead of 8%, is now anticipated. Meanwhile for the euro zone the projection of a drop of 10.2% was changed to one of 8.3%.

The emerging markets bloc does not suffer the same fate and its forecasts have worsened a decrease of 3.1% to 3.3%. In this photograph, the perspectives of India play a preponderant role, which received the coronavirus blow belatedly and sees its projections reduced a drop of 4.5% to a higher brand of 10.3%.

Brazil stands out in the region

Despite the above, Latin America did manage to comply with the improvements in the world economic panorama, going a forecast of a decline of 9.4% to one of 8.1% for this year. In this regard, the contribution of Brazil is fundamental, which, unlike previous reports, exceeds Chile's forecasts. According to the IMF, the largest regional economy will now experience a contraction of 5.8%, well below the 9.1% anticipated in June.

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